Western Monarch Population Viability Analysis | F17AS00061

Opportunity Information: Apply for F17AS00061

The Western Monarch Population Viability Analysis grant opportunity is a U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Department of the Interior) cooperative agreement focused on quantifying extinction risk and recovery needs for western monarch butterflies. Monarchs across North America have experienced major declines over the last two decades, with research indicating up to an 80 percent decline in eastern populations and more than a 70 percent decline in western populations. While previous scientific work (notably Semmens et al. 2016) produced formal population viability and quasi-extinction projections for eastern monarchs, comparable, decision-ready analyses had not been completed for the western population. This award is meant to close that gap by producing a rigorous population viability analysis tailored to the biology and overwintering structure of western monarchs in coastal California.

The project is to be carried out by Washington State University, which will adapt the modeling framework used in the eastern analyses to the western monitoring data and context. The opportunity description highlights an initial, preliminary trend assessment already performed using multivariate autoregressive state-space models, drawing on the Western Monarch Thanksgiving Count dataset from 1997 through 2014. That early work estimated a negative population growth rate for western monarchs (u = -0.077, roughly equivalent to lambda about 0.93), which is similar in magnitude to the estimated decline rate reported for eastern monarchs (u = -0.061, lambda about 0.94). These values underscore that the western population appears to be declining at a rate comparable to the eastern population, strengthening the case for a more complete viability analysis.

The planned work has several concrete analytical deliverables. First, the recipient will produce a robust estimate of the probability of quasi-extinction for western monarchs over the next 20 years. Quasi-extinction in this context generally refers to falling below a critically low threshold where recovery becomes unlikely, even if absolute extinction has not yet occurred. Second, the study will estimate how large an increase in western monarch population size would be needed to cut the extinction risk in half, providing a clear, management-relevant target analogous to the eastern estimate that suggested a five-fold increase was needed to substantially reduce risk. Beyond these core outputs, the project will explore model extensions that can detect whether the rate of decline has been steady or has changed over time during the last two decades, which can help identify periods of acceleration, stabilization, or improvement. The analysis will also examine the influence of potential drivers such as drought and pesticide exposure by incorporating covariates, with the aim of determining how these stressors may affect population trajectory and extinction risk.

From a conservation and policy standpoint, the purpose of the grant is to generate credible quantitative evidence that can support status assessments and help prioritize future research and conservation investments for western monarchs. By translating monitoring counts into probabilistic forecasts and identifying how environmental conditions and human-influenced factors may alter risk, the results are intended to guide where interventions may be most effective and what scale of population rebound is needed to meaningfully change outcomes.

Administratively, this opportunity (Funding Opportunity Number F17AS00061) was posted as a discretionary award using a cooperative agreement mechanism under CFDA 15.658, within the Natural Resources funding activity category. Eligible applicants were public and state-controlled institutions of higher education, but the posting is explicitly a Notification of Intent to make a single-source award through the CESU network, meaning the recipient had already been selected rather than the program being open for competitive proposals. The announcement was created on December 9, 2016, with an original closing date of December 16, 2016. The expected number of awards was one, with an award ceiling of $47,500. The legal authorities cited include the Fish and Wildlife Coordination Act of 1958 (16 U.S.C. 661) and the Land and Water Conservation Fund Act of 1965, as amended (16 U.S.C. 460l-4 through 11).

• The Department of the Interior, Fish and Wildlife Service in the natural resources sector is offering a public funding opportunity titled "Western Monarch Population Viability Analysis" and is now available to receive applicants.
• Interested and eligible applicants and submit their applications by referencing the CFDA number(s): 15.658.
• This funding opportunity was created on Dec 09, 2016.
• Applicants must submit their applications by Dec 16, 2016 This is a Notification of Intent to award a Single Source CESU award. The recipient has already been selected.. (Agency may still review applications by suitable applicants for the remaining/unused allocated funding in 2026.)
• Each selected applicant is eligible to receive up to $47,500.00 in funding.
• The number of recipients for this funding is limited to 1 candidate(s).
• Eligible applicants include: Public and State controlled institutions of higher education.

Apply for F17AS00061

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